Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Contagiousness in Household Contacts of Symptomatic Adult Index Cases.

Background: Identifying determinants of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in settings of contagion is fundamental to inform containment strategies. We assessed SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold value (Ct) from the first diagnostic nasal-pharyngeal swab of symptomatic index cases and which demographic or clinical characteristics among cases and contacts are associated with transmission risk within households. Methods: This is a retrospective prevalence study on secondary SARS-CoV-2 cases (SC) among the household contacts of symptomatic adult index cases randomly sampled from all the SARS-CoV-2-positive diagnostic nasopharyngeal swabs analyzed at our regional referral hospital (Amedeo di Savoia Hospital, Turin, Italy) in March, 2020. Index cases underwent a telephone survey to collect their demographic and clinical data and all their household contacts. The Ct value of RdRp gene from the first diagnostic swab of index cases was recorded and index cases were grouped according to Ct tertiles (A < first tertile, first ≤ B ≤ second tertile, C ≥ second tertile). Post hoc analysis was performed in SC as well as contacts that did not undergo SARS-CoV-2 testing but developed compatible signs and symptoms. Non-parametric tests and generalized linear models were run. Results: Index (n = 72) and contact (n = 164) median age was 54 (48-63) and 32 (20-56) years, respectively. A total of 60, 50, and 54 subjects were contacts of group A, B, and C index cases, respectively; 35.9% of contacts were SC. Twenty-four further subjects (14.6%) met the criteria for symptom-based likely positive SC. The secondary attack rate was 36.0% (28.6-43.4), assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days and a maximum infectious period of 20 days. SC prevalence differed between Ct groups (53.3% A, 32.0% B, 20.4% C; p < 0.001). No difference in SC was found according to sex, presence of signs/symptoms, and COVID-19 severity of index cases, or according to contacts' sex and number per household. The age of both index cases [aOR 4.52 (1.2-17.0) for 60 vs. ≤45 years old] and contacts [aOR 3.66 (1.3-10.6) for 60 vs. ≤45years old] and the Ct of the index [aOR 0.17 (0.07-0.4) for Ct ≥ 31.8 vs. Ct < 24.4] independently associated with SC risk. Sensitivity analysis including symptoms-based likely positive SC supported all the previous results. Conclusion: In confined transmission settings such as households, PCR Ct values may inform on the contagiousness of infected subjects and age may modulate transmission/contagion risk.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Head and Neck Cancer Diagnosis in the Piedmont Region, Italy: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has likely affected the most vulnerable groups of patients and those requiring time-critical access to healthcare services, such as patients with cancer. The aim of this study was to use time trend data to assess the impact of COVID-19 on timely diagnosis and treatment of head and neck cancer (HNC) in the Italian Piedmont region. Methods This study was based on two different data sources. First, regional hospital discharge register data were used to identify incident HNC in patients ≥18 years old during the period from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to model the long-time trends in monthly incident HNC before COVID-19 while accounting for holiday-related seasonal fluctuations in the HNC admissions. Second, in a population of incident HNC patients eligible for recruitment in an ongoing clinical cohort study (HEADSpAcE) that started before the COVID-19 pandemic, we compared the distribution of early-stage and late-stage diagnoses between the pre-COVID-19 and the COVID-19 period. Results There were 4,811 incident HNC admissions in the 5-year period before the COVID-19 outbreak and 832 admissions in 2020, of which 689 occurred after the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. An initial reduction of 28% in admissions during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.62–0.84) was largely addressed by the end of 2020 (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89–1.03) when considering the whole population, although there were some heterogeneities. The gap between observed and expected admissions was particularly evident and had not completely recovered by the end of the year in older (≥75 years) patients (RR: 0.88, 0.76–1.01), patients with a Romano-Charlson comorbidity index below 2 (RR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84–1.00), and primary surgically treated patients (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.80–0.97). In the subgroup of patients eligible for the ongoing active recruitment, we observed no evidence of a shift toward a more advanced stage at diagnosis in the periods following the first pandemic wave. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has affected differentially the management of certain groups of incident HNC patients, with more pronounced impact on older patients, those treated primarily surgically, and those with less comorbidities. The missed and delayed diagnoses may translate into worser oncological outcomes in these patients.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for COVID-19 and influenza H1N1 associated acute respiratory distress syndrome: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has become an established rescue therapy for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in several etiologies including influenza A H1N1 pneumonia. The benefit of receiving ECMO in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still uncertain. The aim of this analysis was to compare the outcome of patients who received veno-venous ECMO for COVID-19 and Influenza A H1N1 associated ARDS. METHODS: This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including adults with ARDS, receiving ECMO for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 pneumonia between 2009 and 2021 in seven Italian ICU. The primary outcome was any-cause mortality at 60 days after ECMO initiation. We used a multivariable Cox model to estimate the difference in mortality accounting for patients' characteristics and treatment factors before ECMO was started. Secondary outcomes were mortality at 90 days, ICU and hospital length of stay and ECMO associated complications. RESULTS: Data from 308 patients with COVID-19 (N = 146) and H1N1 (N = 162) associated ARDS who had received ECMO support were included. The estimated cumulative mortality at 60 days after initiating ECMO was higher in COVID-19 (46%) than H1N1 (27%) patients (hazard ratio 1.76, 95% CI 1.17-2.46). When adjusting for confounders, specifically age and hospital length of stay before ECMO support, the hazard ratio decreased to 1.39, 95% CI 0.78-2.47. ICU and hospital length of stay, duration of ECMO and invasive mechanical ventilation and ECMO-associated hemorrhagic complications were higher in COVID-19 than H1N1 patients. CONCLUSION: In patients with ARDS who received ECMO, the observed unadjusted 60-day mortality was higher in cases of COVID-19 than H1N1 pneumonia. This difference in mortality was not significant after multivariable adjustment; older age and longer hospital length of stay before ECMO emerged as important covariates that could explain the observed difference. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05080933 , retrospectively registered.

'Scuola sicura': a school screening testing programme to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in students in Piedmont.

BACKGROUND: 'Scuola sicura' (SS) programme aims to monitor the rate of COVID-19 and to contain its spread within the school population through early case isolation. OBJECTIVES: to describe the initial process and outcome evaluation results. DESIGN: descriptive study of an experimental screening testing programme in children in Piedmont Region (Northern Italy) in the period January-March 2021. The data used came from the COVID-19 platform and the Local Health Units, the archives of birth certificates (CedAP), and hospital discharge files (SDO). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the screening programme targeted second and third grade students in first level secondary schools. Participants were subdivided into four groups; one group each week underwent screening, yielding one test per student per month. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: it was calculated: 1. number of positive cases detected vs total number of students tested in the SS programme; 2. number of positive cases detected outside the SS program vs. total number of students in the target population. The number of quarantines due to SS and no-SS case identification were detected. To investigate the spread of COVID-19 in households, the mother-child pairs were identified through record linkage between the CedAP and SDO archives, and positive mothers were identified. RESULTS: sixty-nine percent of schools and 19.5% of the students participated in the programme. SS detected 114 positives cases for SARS-CoV-2. On 08.03.2021, the target classes started distance learning: 69 of the 114 positive students were identified before that date, leading to the activation of 67 quarantine measures. Only for 61 out of 69 of those students (88%) was possible to identify the mother; 46 mothers had performed a swab test after the positivity of their child with a positive result in 11 cases. Asymptomatic cases identified at screening during in-class learning period accounted for 26.5% of the total number of cases occurred in the participating classes. CONCLUSIONS: this is one of the few studies (and the first in Italy) to describe the functioning and predictive capacity of school screening testing for SARS-CoV-2 in a real-world situation. The findings provide data-driven suggestions for government agencies when planning large-scale school screening testing programmes.

COVID-19-like symptoms and their relation to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in children and adults of an Italian birth cohort

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in children and adults during the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave hitting Italy in the spring 2020; to assess their geographical correlation with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases by province; to analyse their clustering within families; to estimate their sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for COVID-19 diagnosis in individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: cross-sectional study nested within a birth cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: mothers participating in an Italian birth cohort (NINFEA) were invited to complete an online questionnaire on COVID-19-like symptoms in their household. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: population prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in children and adults, geographical correlation of COVID-19-like symptoms with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases by province, clustering of COVID-19-like symptoms within families, and sensitivity, PPV and NPV of COVID-19-like symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis in individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: information was collected on 3,184 households, 6,133 adults, and 5,751 children. In the period March-April 2020, 55.4% of the NINFEA families had at least one member with at least one COVID-19-like symptom. There was a strong geographical correlation between the population cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the prevalence of muscle pain, fatigue, low-grade fever, and breathing difficulties in adults (Spearman's rho >=0.70). Having at least one family member with a COVID-19 diagnosis, compared with none tested for SARS-CoV-2, was associated with an increased prevalence ratio (PR) of almost all COVID-19-like symptoms in adults, and only of low-grade fever (37-37.5°C; PR 4.54; 95%CI 2.20-9.40) and anosmia/dysgeusia in children. Among adults with COVID-19 diagnosis, fatigue, muscle pain, and fever had a sensitivity >=70%. In individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, with a 16.6% prevalence of COVID-19, breathing difficulties and nausea/vomiting had the highest PPVs, with point estimates close to 60%, and with NPVs close to 90%. CONCLUSIONS: the geographical prevalence of COVID-19-like symptoms in adults may inform on local disease clusters, while certain symptoms in family members of confirmed COVID-19 cases could help identify the intra-familial spread of the virus and its further propagation in the community. Low-grade fever is frequent in children with at least one household member with COVID-19 and possibly indicates child infection.

Effects of Steroids and Tocilizumab on the Immune Response Profile of Patients with COVID-19-Associated ARDS Requiring or Not Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

Veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) is a life-saving rescue therapy in patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). ECMO has been associated with development of lymphocytopenia that is also common in COVID-19. Hyperinflammation may complicate SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, prompting therapy with steroids and immunomodulatory drugs. We aimed to evaluate the association of therapies such as steroids and Tocilizumab with trajectories of the total leukocytes, lymphocyte subpopulation count, and inflammatory and fibrinolysis markers in COVID-19-related ARDS, requiring or not VV-ECMO support. The association of the trajectories of the leukocytes, lymphocyte subpopulation count, and inflammatory and fibrinolysis markers with treatment with steroids (Steroids), Tocilizumab (Tocilizumab), both drugs (Steroids + Tocilizumab), and absence of treatment (No Treatment) were analyzed using mixed effects regression models, where ECMO was considered as a potential effect modifier. One hundred and thirty-nine leukocyte and eighty-one lymphocyte subpopulation counts were obtained from thirty-one patients who required (VV-ECMO, N = 13) or not (no VV-ECMO, N = 18) extracorporeal support. In both groups, treatment with Steroids + Tocilizumab was independently associated with a significant reduction of 46% and 67% in total lymphocytes, 22% and 60% in CD3+, and 61% and 91% in CD19+ (B lymphocytes) compared to those obtained without treatment, respectively. In the no VV-ECMO group, Tocilizumab was associated with a 79% increase in total lymphocytes and with a reduction in procalcitonin compared to no treatment. CD45+, CD3+CD4+ (Th cell), CD3+CD8+, CD4+/CD8+, the NK cell subpopulation, neutrophils, monocytes, and basophils were significantly reduced by Steroids + Tocilizumab without an effect modification by VV-ECMO support. In critically ill COVID-19 patients with ARDS, concomitant therapies with steroids and Tocilizumab, beside mitigating the inflammation and fibrinolysis, could reduce the total leukocyte, lymphocyte, and subpopulation count. Moreover, the effect of Tocilizumab in increasing the total lymphocytes and reducing procalcitonin might be blunted by VV-ECMO.

Factors associated with self-perceived knowledge of COVID-19: a study among women from the NINFEA birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: health literacy may contribute to the strategies to control the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as individuals need to acquire promptly new health information, understand the reasons behind recommendations, and adapt their behaviour accordingly. OBJECTIVES: to investigate sociodemographic and disease-related factors that can influence self-perceived knowledge (poor/medium vs high) about COVID-19 in women of the Italian NINFEA birth cohort. DESIGN: cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a web-based anonymous survey on COVID-19 was sent in April 2020 to women participating in the NINFEA cohort. A total of 3,129 women were included in the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: using multiple weighted logistic regression models, self-perceived knowledge level was analysed in relation with the following variables: age, education level, family size, cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases until 7 April 2020 by province, presence of COVID-19-like symptoms, SARS-CoV-2 testing, and COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: the prevalence of self-perceived poor/medium knowledge was 57%. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, the odds ratio (OR) of self-perceived poor/medium COVID-19 knowledge level was increased for low/medium compared with high education level (OR 1.57; 95%CI 1.34-1.84), and decreased for SARS-CoV-2 testing (OR 0.25; 95%CI 0.16-0.39) and COVID-19 diagnosis (OR 0.20; 95%CI 0.07-0.60). There was no evidence of association between the other analysed variables and self-perceived knowledge level. CONCLUSIONS: the findings of this study suggest that low educational level is a determinant of low self-perceived knowledge on COVID-19 in middle-aged women.

Lung Ultrasonography for the Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia in the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Accurate diagnostic testing to identify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is critical. Although highly specific, SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been shown in clinical practice to be affected by a noninsignificant proportion of false-negative results. This study seeks to explore whether the integration of lung ultrasonography with clinical evaluation is associated with increased sensitivity for the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia, and therefore may facilitate the identification of false-negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results. METHODS: This prospective cohort study enrolled consecutive adult patients with symptoms potentially related to SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to the emergency department (ED) of an Italian academic hospital. Immediately after the initial assessment, a lung ultrasonographic evaluation was performed and the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection, based on both clinical and lung ultrasonographic findings ("integrated" assessment), was recorded. RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 detection was subsequently performed. RESULTS: We enrolled 228 patients; 107 (46.9%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Sensitivity and negative predictive value of the clinical-lung ultrasonographic integrated assessment were higher than first RT-PCR result (94.4% [95% confidence interval {CI} 88.2% to 97.9%] versus 80.4% [95% CI 71.6% to 87.4%] and 95% [95% CI 89.5% to 98.2%] versus 85.2% [95% CI 78.3% to 90.6%], respectively). Among the 142 patients who initially had negative RT-PCR results, 21 tested positive at a subsequent molecular test performed within 72 hours. All these false-negative cases were correctly identified by the integrated assessment. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that, in patients presenting to the ED with symptoms commonly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the integration of lung ultrasonography with clinical evaluation has high sensitivity and specificity for coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia and it may help to identify false-negative results occurring with RT-PCR.

Impacts of reopening strategies for COVID-19 epidemic: a modeling study in Piedmont region.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), is a highly transmittable virus. Since the first person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Italy on February 21st, 2020, the number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 increased rapidly, mainly in northern Italian regions, including Piedmont. A strict lockdown was imposed on March 21st until May 4th when a gradual relaxation of the restrictions started. In this context, computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to understand the spread of the diseases and to evaluate social measures to counteract, mitigate or delay the spread of the epidemic. METHODS: This study presents an extended version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SEIRS) model accounting for population age structure. The infectious population is divided into three sub-groups: (i) undetected infected individuals, (ii) quarantined infected individuals and (iii) hospitalized infected individuals. Moreover, the strength of the government restriction measures and the related population response to these are explicitly represented in the model. RESULTS: The proposed model allows us to investigate different scenarios of the COVID-19 spread in Piedmont and the implementation of different infection-control measures and testing approaches. The results show that the implemented control measures have proven effective in containing the epidemic, mitigating the potential dangerous impact of a large proportion of undetected cases. We also forecast the optimal combination of individual-level measures and community surveillance to contain the new wave of COVID-19 spread after the re-opening work and social activities. CONCLUSIONS: Our model is an effective tool useful to investigate different scenarios and to inform policy makers about the potential impact of different control strategies. This will be crucial in the upcoming months, when very critical decisions about easing control measures will need to be taken.

Approaches to Daily Monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Italy.

Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. In the current study we analyzed public data from the four most affected Italian regions. We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt ), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of Rt over time in all regions, and the peak of incident cases ~2 weeks after the implementation of the first strict containment measures. Our results show that phenomenological approaches may be useful to monitor the epidemic growth in its initial phases and suggest that costly and disruptive public health controls might have had a positive impact in limiting the Sars-Cov-2 spread in Northern Italy.